Who has not felt the shock of a grocery shop lately, when a relatively small basket of ‘essentials’ can quickly run into hundreds, or even thousands, of rand?
For households with comfortable incomes, a more expensive shop may mean cutting back on a few special extras like that almost R150 bag of biltong.
For families already living close to the edge, it can mean less food in the trolley, cheaper substitutions and difficult choices about which household bills get paid first.
The contradiction is striking.
South Africa is approaching the end of what is expected to be a record maize harvest, with about 11.9 million tonnes already delivered to commercial silos by the end of July, roughly 68% of the expected 17.4 million-tonne crop.
South Africa consumes about 12 million tonnes of maize a year, meaning the country is heading into a period of considerable supply and export availability.
Yet an abundant crop does not automatically mean an affordable food basket. The distinction between food availability and food affordability is becoming increasingly important.
Costs beyond many budgets
The latest figures from the Pietermaritzburg Economic Justice and Dignity Group show the scale of the pressure.
Its June 2026 Household Affordability Index put the average cost of its household food basket at R5,502.42.
Its basic nutritional food basket was even higher, at R6,705.31.
The figures matter because the basket is designed to reflect what women living on low incomes actually buy for their families.
The issue is therefore not simply whether food inflation is rising or falling.
It is whether household income is sufficient to buy an adequate diet after rent, electricity, transport, education and other essentials have been paid.
The maize paradox
The maize story illustrates the problem.
Wandile Sihlobo, chief economist at the Agricultural Business Chamber of South Africa, said the country was approaching the end of the maize harvest and that the crop remained in good condition despite unusually persistent rain.
“The rain continued for far longer than usual, raining through mid-May 2026, which is quite unusual. Some of us started worrying about the damage the rain could cause to the crop quality. But so far, the crop is in good condition,” Sihlobo said.
By the end of July, farmers had delivered about 11.9 million tonnes to commercial silos.
“This is an ample crop if we consider that South Africa consumes about 12 million tonnes a year. We are in a year of abundance for exports,” Sihlobo said.
That is good news for food security, but it does not tell the whole story.
Abundance ≠ cheap food
Professor Simphiwe Madikizela, senior lecturer in economics at UNISA's School of Graduate Business and Leadership, says South Africa needs to distinguish between having enough food and whether farmers are making money from producing it.
“The bumper maize crop is excellent news for food security and exports, but it creates a paradox: consumers benefit from abundant supply and softer maize prices, while farmers face margin pressure because production costs remain elevated and commodity prices are under pressure.”
Madikizela said the strong harvest could put pressure on commodity prices while farmers continue to face high production costs.
“I think we need to distinguish very carefully between South Africa having an abundant maize supply and South African maize farmers having a profitable season. Those are two very different things.”
That distinction matters for consumers too.
The price of food on supermarket shelves reflects far more than the cost of the raw crop.
Diesel is a particularly important link in that chain, powering farm machinery and the trucks that move food from farms to silos, processors, distribution centres and retailers. After a sharp diesel price shock in April, when the average price rose from R21.28 to R28.80 a litre, prices fell in July but increased again in August, with diesel rising by up to R1.38 a litre from August 5.
That matters because higher fuel costs can feed through the supply chain, from farming and freight to distribution and retail. So even when the price of a crop falls because there is plenty of it, the saving does not necessarily flow through to the final supermarket price.
The harvest has not come without problems
The bumper crop has also been slower to harvest than usual.
Dawie Maree, head of FNB agriculture marketing and information, said the summer grain harvest was about two-thirds complete, with maize the biggest crop still outstanding.
“The reason for the later than normal progress is the late start to the harvesting season, due to later rain, but the progress was picking up at the end of July, going into August.”
He said current wet conditions could cause another slowdown.
“What is clear is that we have a record crop and crop conditions or grades are also not a problem,” Maree said.
Dr Christiaan Mostert, senior researcher in agricultural economics at the University of Pretoria, said the national crop appeared largely secure, but warned that the remainder of the harvest was not without risk.
“The renewed rainfall across parts of the summer grain region over the past two days is particularly ill-timed,” Mostert said.
“The season was already unusually late because planting and harvesting were delayed by persistent wet conditions earlier in the year.”
Maize, only one part of the food bill
This is where the household story becomes more complicated.
Maize is a staple, but South African families also have to pay for bread, cooking oil, meat, dairy, vegetables, fruit and other essentials.
Some of those products are exposed to completely different price pressures.
The UN Food and Agriculture Organization's food price index rose to 131.1 points in July 2026, its highest level since January 2023, with cereal prices rising during the month.
A bumper maize crop therefore cannot insulate South African households from every global food-price shock.
Purchasing power
Ultimately, this is less a story about whether South Africa has enough food than about who can afford it.
The June PMBEJD figures put the average household food basket at more than R5,500.
For low-income households, that can consume a substantial share of monthly income before transport, electricity, housing and other necessities are taken into account.
That can force choices that do not always show up clearly in inflation statistics.
Families may buy less meat, switch to cheaper foods, reduce the amount they buy or simply run out of money before the end of the month.
The impact is particularly significant for households with children.
The PMBEJD's June data put the average cost of feeding one child at R977.52.
For a household supporting several children, the numbers quickly become significant.
A bumper harvest is still good news
None of this means South Africa's maize abundance should be dismissed.
A record crop is an important buffer against shortages, supports food security and creates export potential.
Sihlobo described the crop as “an ample crop” and said South Africa was in a year of abundance for exports.
The challenge is turning that agricultural abundance into affordable nutrition.
That requires more than farmers producing enough.
It requires functioning logistics, competitive markets, manageable input costs and household incomes that are high enough to buy the food being produced.
South Africa can therefore have a record maize harvest and still have families struggling to put an adequate meal on the table.
There is no contradiction once food security and food affordability are separated.
The first asks: Is there enough food?
The second asks: Can people afford to buy it?
Right now, South Africa has encouraging news on the first question. The second remains much harder.
For millions of households, the measure that matters is much simpler: How much food can they actually afford to take home at the end of the month?
yogashen.pillay@nationalmg.co.za
yogashen.pillay@nationalmg.co.za