Luthuli House’s decision to recognise and reinstate the disbanded ANC Eastern Cape Provincial Executive Committee (PEC), just months before the local government elections, marks a significant retreat by the party's national leadership following a loss in the Makhanda High Court.
Political analysts have weighed in on how voters will respond to the move.
One analyst suggested that the fractured state of the ANC in the Eastern Cape and the last-minute scramble to reinstate provincial leadership would likely play into the hands of opposition parties, particularly the uMkhonto WeSizwe (MK) Party.
However, another analyst noted that ANC voters in the Eastern Cape have historically been steadfastly loyal, making it uncertain how these provincial leadership squabbles will ultimately affect the ballot.
The leadership headache in the province was sparked by divisions during a provincial elective conference in March this year, where some branches wanted provincial secretary Lulama Ngcukayitobi to succeed Oscar Mabuyane as provincial chairperson, while others backed Mabuyane for a third term. The disgruntled faction obtained an interdict to halt the conference.
In response, the ANC national leadership disbanded the PEC in May, citing the expiry of its term, and installed a Provincial Task Team (PTT) with all of the top five leaders returning except Ngcukayitobi, who was appointed merely as an additional member. This decision further angered the faction, which promptly challenged the PTT's appointment in court.
In June, Makhanda High Court Judge Vuyokazi Noncembu concurred with the disgruntled party members and set aside the PTT appointment, leaving the province without a recognized leadership structure. On Monday, Luthuli House filed a direct appeal to the Supreme Court of Appeal in Bloemfontein, while simultaneously deciding to reinstate the disbanded PEC.
A letter signed by ANC secretary-general Fikile Mbalula invited PEC members to a meeting on Wednesday to discuss the provincial election campaign.
Ngcukayitobi confirmed that the meeting took place and stated that Mbalula informed them that, following deliberations and legal advice, the National Executive Committee had agreed to reinstate the PEC. However, he noted that Mbalula added he would send formal correspondence to officially confirm the reinstatement.
“Yes, the meeting did take place and we were invited as the PEC. The PEC is technically back in office, and I will look at the correspondence from the head office, which should clarify issues and map the way forward. On what will happen to pending legal matters, I hope the correspondence will address all that,” said Ngcukayitobi.
Political analyst Professor Musa Xulu stated that the internal factional battles, which have left the party with no recognised provincial structure in the Eastern Cape since March, have opened a gap for opposition parties, such as the MK Party, to gain ground in the province.
Xulu noted that Jacob Zuma is already campaigning in the region, although he is not yet drawing massive crowds.
“He may cause a dent, especially in the metros. However, it should also be noted that voters in the Eastern Cape tend to be staunchly loyal to the ANC, particularly in small towns and rural areas. Much will depend on the calibre of ward councillor candidates they put forward. Nevertheless, reinstating a divided PEC is unlikely to help much because the structure will struggle to work together,” Xulu said.
Concurring with Xulu, political analyst Professor Lesiba Teffo argued that the horse has already bolted and that many voters in the Eastern Cape have already made up their minds.
“I think it's too late for the elections, and whether Mabuyane and Ngcukayitobi manage to show a united face to the public, it is highly unlikely that voters will be convinced,” said Teffo.
willem.phungula@nationalmg.co.za