The ANC’s last-minute decision to delay naming its final mayoral candidates until September, just weeks before the pivotal November 4 municipal polls, has fuelled speculation that internal factional battles, rather than procedural caution, lie behind the hold-up.
While party secretary-general Fikile Mbalula yesterday insisted the delay reflects confidence in the party’s “rigorous” selection process and denied any lack of consensus, political analysts warned that the final picks risk exposing deep fault lines between rival camps aligned to Mbalula and Deputy President Paul Mashatile, both frontrunners to succeed President Cyril Ramaphosa in 2027.
In recent months, businessman Patrice Motsepe has been tipped to contest the ANC top post in December 2027, but he has distanced himself from the campaign saying he has no ambitions for political office.
Political analyst Sandile Swana cautioned that regional chairpersons and powerful branches dissatisfied with the eventual choices could push back hard, predicting that councillor killings tied to political rivalry would reach record levels during the election period, a warning underscored by the recent spate of four murders in Knysna.
Swana believes that going forward “Mbalula is going to be putting out fires”, saying the emerging picture surrounding internal factions and political violence was worrying. Furthermore, he forecast that Jacob Zuma’s uMkhonto weSizwe Party (MK Party) will give the ANC formidable competition especially in KwaZulu-Natal, where it enjoys strong support.
According to him, the MK Party would not enter into a coalition with the ANC if it fails to secure an outright majority in eThekwini, adding that it would likely seek to form a coalition with other parties instead. Swana said: “They don’t need the ANC; they are going to slaughter the ANC. The ANC is going to be butchered in eThekwini.”
Another analyst, Professor Musa Xulu, told The National earlier this week that the MK Party will perform well despite its internal disputes over councillor candidate lists because its voting base remains firmly aligned behind its president, Jacob Zuma.
Meanwhile, Swana also commented on the importance of qualifications for councillors, saying that while not compulsory, a minimum level of education should be required, including TVET college qualifications such as an N6 certificate and a three-year diploma. “Your CV must not only talk about certification that you went through, but where you were practically tested,” Swana said. The ANC, which said Ramaphosa is the face of its election campaign, stated that its “rigorous” candidate selection process requires candidates to have qualifications, experience and an understanding of service delivery issues in their municipality.
Addressing fears that potential candidates may start fighting over mayoral positions, Mbalula said those candidates may be withdrawn if they displayed “uncontrollable desire for power”. Political analyst Professor André Duvenhage weighed in, saying the problem with cadre deployment is not really about competency, but rather credentials, history in the struggle and loyalty to certain leaders.
Duvenhage said the main battle for the ANC is not the 2026 local government elections but at its 2027 elective conference. He added that the announcement will intensify the battle for leadership positions in various municipalities. “It will raise the levels of conflict and it has the potential for violence and even assassination. We have seen in recent days the assassination in Knysna,” he said. Duvenhage cited the DA as an example of the importance of fielding a credible, high-profile candidate, saying the party realised it could have performed better in previous elections in Johannesburg, hence its decision to field Helen Zille.
Zille, a former Cape Town mayor and Western Cape premier, will go head-to-head with former Johannesburg mayor and ActionSA leader Herman Mashaba, Rise Mzansi’s Lukhona Mnguni and the EFF’s Dr Tlaleng Mofokeng. The ANC’s applicants for the mayoral positions in Joburg are the incumbent mayor Dada Morero, his deputy mayor Loyiso Masuku, and struggle veteran Reverend Frank Chikane. The battle for control of the Tshwane metro will be contested by the city’s mayor and ActionSA candidate Dr Nasiphi Moya, the DA’s Cilliers Brink, and the EFF’s Omphile Maotwe. The ANC’s potential candidates in Tshwane include Aaron Maluleka, Tlangi Mogale and Kgosi Maepa.
In Cape Town, Mayor Geordin Hill-Lewis, who is also the party’s leader in the city, will square off with ANC nominees Fiona Abrahams, Lwazi Phakade, and Zelda Tarentaal, as well as Patriotic Alliance candidate Cheslyn Daniels. In eThekwini, the DA will field Haniff Hoosen as its mayoral candidate to take on one of the ANC’s nominees, who include city mayor Cyril Xaba, council speaker Thabani Nyawose, former KZN premier and deputy minister of higher education Nomusa Dube, Maggie Govender and Mina Som-Lesoma.
The MK Party has not yet announced its mayoral candidates due to its own internal friction. According to the Electoral Commission of South Africa, registered political parties and independent candidates intending to contest the 2026 Local Government Elections have until close of business on August 28 to submit their candidate lists and nomination documents.
MK Party spokesperson Sifiso Mahlangu was contacted for comment on when the party will announce its mayoral candidates, but did not respond.
However, there has been speculation that the party is considering former Midvaal Local Municipality executive mayor Bongani Baloyi for Johannesburg and former Umvoti Local Municipality mayor Philani Mavundla of the Abantu Batho Congress for eThekwini.
It remains unclear who the party will field in Tshwane and Cape Town. Duvenhage echoed Swana’s view on the MK Party’s expected performance in KwaZulu-Natal, saying the party is likely to take control of most municipalities in the province.
He predicted that the elections are going to be tough for the ANC, saying the party could improve its situation if it identifies a candidate with a certain profile and following who may earn it a few percentage points.
rapula.moatshe@nationalmg.co.za