IMM Graduate School, in a new release on Monday, looked at the impact of South Africa’s foot-and-mouth disease (FMD) on farmers and the South African economy, and the figure came to R13.1 billionover five years just for the agricultural sector alone.
Ernst van Biljon, Dean of Research, IMM Graduate School, said that South Africa’s foot-and-mouth disease (FMD) outbreak is no longer simply an animal health problem.
“Its consequences are being felt across the country's livestock supply chain, from farms and abattoirs to cold stores, transporters, exporters, and international markets. The scale of the disruption is significant."
Van Biljon added that a January 2026 study by the Bureau for Food and Agricultural Policy estimates the five-year cost of the crisis to South Africa's livestock sector at R13.1 billion, including R11.3bn in lost production and R1.8bn in lost export revenue.
“The government declared FMD a national disaster in February 2026. While much of the coverage has understandably focused on animal health, the economic consequences highlight another problem: the vulnerability of the supply chains that move livestock and meat from producer to market.”
Van Biljon said that strip away the animal health framing, and the government's response reads like a textbook supply chain operation.
“When an outbreak triggers movement restrictions or export market closures, the disruption quickly moves through the wider supply chain. Animals cannot necessarily move as planned; abattoir throughput may be affected, finished meat may have nowhere to go, and cold storage facilities can become holding points rather than links in a continuous export chain.”
Van Biljon added that the consequences are already visible in export figures.
“Beef exports are estimated to have fallen by 26% year on year, while some categories of bovine meat exports were down 56.6% by mid-2026. Exports to some Middle Eastern markets have reportedly fallen by between 65% and 95%. For businesses operating along the chain, this creates a much different risk profile from a conventional production disruption,” he said.
Van Biljon said that the problem is not simply whether meat can be produced, but whether it can be moved, certified, stored, and ultimately accepted by the intended market.
“The international response has also demonstrated the importance of trade compliance and certification. Some markets have closed their borders to South African beef, while others have remained open under revised certification arrangements.
China, Mozambique, Zimbabwe, Namibia, and the UK have maintained restrictions on South African beef since January 2025, while markets including the UAE, Jordan, Hong Kong, and Kuwait have continued accepting products under revised conditions.”
Van Biljon added that maintaining access to those markets requires coordination between veterinary authorities, exporters, regulators, and trade-compliance specialists.
For exporters, certification is not an administrative afterthought. It is part of the supply chain. If documentation cannot be issued in time, a shipment can be delayed even when the physical product is ready to move. That creates knock-on consequences for transport planning, inventory, cold storage, production scheduling, and customer relationships.
One of the longer-term challenges is traceability.
South Africa's livestock traceability system remains largely voluntary, with the Red Meat Industry Services playing a central role. The absence of a comprehensive mandatory national system makes it more difficult to quickly establish where animals have moved and which parts of the supply chain may have been exposed.
Van Biljon added that during an outbreak, that information becomes critical.
Effective traceability can help authorities identify affected animals, isolate potentially exposed populations, and limit restrictions to the areas or supply chains that actually present a risk. Without sufficiently detailed movement data, the response can become broader and more disruptive than necessary.
Van Biljon said that the FMD crisis, therefore, highlights a wider supply chain principle: visibility is a form of risk management. “Knowing where an animal has been, which facilities it has passed through, and where its products are ultimately destined can determine how quickly a disruption can be contained.”
Van Biljon added that the lessons from FMD extend well beyond agriculture. Producers need systems that improve traceability and risk management.
“Abattoirs and processors need to manage changing throughput and market requirements. Cold chain operators need to respond to shifting inventory flows. Exporters must manage certification and market-access requirements, while retailers and other buyers need contingency plans when established sources become unavailable.”
Francois Rossouw, CEO of Southern African Agri Initiative (Saai), said that he believes that estimate is realistic. "In fact, there is a strong argument that the total cost to the livestock sector and wider value chain could rise beyond that if South Africa does not contain the outbreak quickly and restore confidence in disease control, vaccination, and traceability systems."
yogashen.pillay@nationalmg.co.za
THE NATIONAL
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