South Africa’s commercial maize crop is forecast to reach a record 17.402 million tonnes in 2026, strengthening export prospects and easing pressure on grain prices.
However, the risk of an El Niño related drought remains a concern for the next summer planting season.
Despite recent challenges with heavy rain, the latest Crop Estimates Committee (CEC) report indicates a strong harvest, with the maize crop still expected to be the largest on record. This could provide some relief to consumers who depend on maize as a staple food.
The CEC said the expected commercial maize crop has been set at 17.402 million tonnes. “This is 39,200 tonnes, or 0.23%, higher than the previous forecast of 17.363 million tonnes.
The expected average yield is 6.39 tonnes per hectare. The estimated maize crop is 4.05%, or 676,840 tonnes, larger than the 2025 crop. The Free State, Mpumalanga and North West are expected to produce 82% of the 2026 crop.”
The CEC forecast white maize production at 9.488 million tonnes, up 97,000 tonnes, or 1.03%, from the previous estimate of 9.391 million tonnes.
“The estimated area planted to white maize is 1.675 million hectares, with an expected average yield of 5.67 tonnes per hectare.”
CEC said that yellow maize production is forecast at 7.914 million tonnes, down 57,800 tonnes, or 0.73%, from the previous forecast of 7.972 million tonnes.
“The area planted to yellow maize is estimated at 1.050 million hectares, with an expected average yield of 7.54 tonnes per hectare. The total maize area estimate was increased slightly to 2.724 million hectares, up 8,000 hectares from the 2.716 million hectares estimated in February 2026.”
The CEC said the adjustment was based on additional information from satellite imagery analysis. “The imagery forms part of the National Crop Estimates Consortium’s project outputs, with results becoming available during July and August.”
Wandile Sihlobo, chief economist at the Agricultural Business Chamber of South Africa, said attention is already turning to the 2026/27 season and the risk of an El Niño related drought. However, he said the latest figures show that South Africa is closing a period of abundant production.
According to Sihlobo, the CEC’s seventh estimate placed total summer grain and oilseed production at 21.6 million tonnes, including maize, sunflower seed, soybeans, groundnuts, sorghum and dry beans. This is about 5% higher than the 2024/25 production season and represents a record total harvest.
“The 17.4 million tonne maize estimate includes about 9.5 million tonnes of white maize and 7.9 million tonnes of yellow maize.”
Sihlobo said the large maize crop, together with likely carryover stocks, suggests that South Africa could again be a net maize exporter in the 2026/27 marketing year, which corresponds with the 2025/26 production season.
South Africa’s annual maize consumption is about 12 million tonnes, he said, leaving more than 3 million tonnes potentially available for export, as well as stocks for the following year. “Harvesting is still under way in parts of the country because of the late start to the season, although crop quality in harvested areas has been decent.”
Sihlobo said the large harvest has placed downward pressure on grain prices in recent months, supporting expectations of moderating consumer food price inflation during 2026.
Statistics South Africa reported that annual inflation for food and non alcoholic beverages slowed to 0.9% in July 2026, the lowest rate in more than 16 years, since June 2010. Cereal products were in deflation, with their annual rate at -2.0%, while maize meal prices fell by 3.1% month on month.
Sihlobo said the main medium term risk is an expected El Niño related drought, which would affect the 2026/27 summer grain crop. “Planting is expected to begin from October 2026, while that harvest would enter the market only from mid 2027.”
Sihlobo concluded that the risk of heatwaves and dry conditions could make the next summer crop season challenging for South African agriculture and could place upward pressure on consumer food price inflation.
yogashen.pillay@nationalmg.co.za