South African farmers are being urged to conserve water, avoid overstocking and prepare for fire and heat risks as El Niño conditions are expected to continue through the 2026/27 summer season.
The Department of Agriculture has warned farmers about possible dry conditions and drought-related risks during the 2026/27 summer season.
El Niño is a natural climate pattern that causes changes in global atmospheric circulation. In South Africa, it is typically associated with below-normal summer rainfall and higher temperatures.
The department said the South African Weather Service’s Seasonal Climate Watch, dated 31 August 2026, indicated that El Niño was occurring and was expected to continue through the 2026/27 summer season. The outlook also showed that many areas could experience below-normal rainfall.
What the forecast means
El Niño conditions may result in reduced rainfall and higher temperatures, leading to dry conditions and heat stress in the agricultural sector.
The department warned that this could contribute to crop failures and livestock deaths, particularly where risk-reduction measures are not implemented. Water restrictions may also be introduced in some areas if rainfall remains low, affecting irrigation farmers.
The Department warned that typical winter conditions have prevailed in summer rainfall areas. However, the winter rainfall areas have experienced a shortage of rainfall, which will be challenging moving into the summer months that will require risk reduction focus. During the 2025/26 summer season, above-normal rainfall was received which improved levels of dams and soil moisture in most summer rainfall areas.
Advice for crop farmers
Crop farmers are encouraged to use climate-smart farming practices to conserve soil moisture.
The department advised farmers to use water sparingly, implement water-harvesting techniques and use efficient irrigation systems, such as drip irrigation. Farmers should also comply with local water restrictions and irrigate at times that reduce water loss, such as in the morning or evening.
Farmers are further encouraged to use suitable cultivars and remain within the recommended planting window.
Livestock and veld management
Livestock farmers should keep their herds in line with the carrying capacity of the veld and the available grazing.
Avoiding overstocking can help prevent overgrazing, which worsens the effects of dry conditions and increases the risk of livestock deaths.
The department also recommended rotational grazing, as well as providing additional feed and watering points where necessary.
Hot summer conditions may also increase the risk of pests and diseases. Farmers have been urged to regularly inspect their crops and livestock and implement control measures when needed.
Prepare for fires
Dr Theo de Jager, executive board chair of the Southern African Agri Initiative (SAAI), said farmers should plan carefully and prepare timely support measures for a potentially difficult 2026/27 production season.
He said drought risk could affect planting decisions, production costs, livestock conditions, cash flow and food availability for local markets. Farmers would need reliable information about seasonal forecasts, water resources, input markets and available support measures.
De Jager described 2026 as “the year of the perfect storm”, citing flooding, foot-and-mouth disease and high fertiliser and diesel costs.
He said farmers should rethink their production plans and input budgets and avoid taking unnecessary risks on marginal fields.
De Jager also urged farmers to prepare for fires in the coming weeks by checking firefighting equipment and ensuring that workers understand firefighting strategies and safety protocols.
He said increased vegetation following heavy rain earlier in 2026 could raise the risk of fires.
yogashen.pillay@nationalmg.co.za