A dry spell in the Swartland that has affected the wheat crop along with the looming threat of El Nino, has raised serious concern among farmers with the Western Cape.
The Department of Agriculture this week acknowledged those concerns about dry conditions later this year - crop insurance appears to be key.
Swartland grain producers in the Western Cape say between 25% and 30% of crop potential may already have been lost on some farms because of insufficient rainfall during winter.
The Department of Agriculture has cautioned about possible dry conditions and drought-related risks during the 2026/27 summer season as El Niño conditions develop.
Dry conditions compound earlier flood damage
The Western Cape Department of Agriculture said it recognised the challenging production conditions currently being experienced by grain farmers in the Swartland.
“Following excessive rainfall and waterlogging during May 2026, shortly after planting, some producers experienced crop and seed damage and were forced to replant under less-than-ideal conditions,” it said.
“Others opted to graze livestock on affected lands because the cost of maintaining a compromised crop outweighed the potential returns.”
The department said flooding, particularly in the Malmesbury area, occurred after most producers had planted their fields. The floodwaters receded relatively quickly, limiting the damage compared with the prolonged dry conditions that followed.
“These challenges were subsequently compounded by insufficient follow-up rainfall during critical crop-development stages, creating significant uncertainty regarding yield prospects across much of the region,” the department said.
Producers have reported that crops in some areas have begun burning off in patches because of moisture stress. Farmers who received rain during critical growth stages are expected to experience less severe impacts.
Rising costs increase pressure
The department said grain farmers are operating under increasingly tight profit margins.
Rising fuel, fertiliser, machinery, labour and financing costs have reduced farmers’ ability to absorb weather-related shocks.
It said fuel prices increased by approximately 113%, from R16.62 a litre to R30.62 a litre, between May 2019 and May 2026.
The government’s temporary fuel-relief measures, including a R3-a-litre reduction in the fuel levy between April and June 2026, provided some assistance. However, the department said the scale and frequency of climate-related disruptions showed the need for longer-term support.
El Niño adds to uncertainty
Professor Simphiwe Madikizela, a senior lecturer in economics at the University of South Africa’s School of Graduate Business and Leadership, said the possible return of El Niño was a significant concern for South Africa’s agricultural sector.
“Farmers are already operating in an environment of rising input costs, infrastructure constraints and tight margins, so another period of below-normal rainfall could put additional pressure on their profitability and production decisions,” Madikizela said.
He said prolonged dry conditions could reduce crop yields, affect livestock and increase production costs.
If production fell materially, food prices could come under upward pressure and agricultural exports could be affected if less surplus production was available for international markets.
Madikizela said the effects of El Niño would differ by region, commodity and farming system. Commercial farmers with irrigation, water-storage capacity, insurance and stronger financial resources could be more resilient, while smallholder and rain-fed farmers were likely to be more vulnerable.
Wandile Sihlobo, chief economist at the Agricultural Business Chamber of South Africa (Agbiz), said wheat plantings in the Western Cape were mainly rain-fed.
“If the weather conditions were broadly favourable, despite all the challenges weighing on plantings, the harvest would still be decent. But that is not what we have experienced,” Sihlobo said.
“The Western Cape has experienced drier-than-usual weather conditions over the past few months. As a result, the wheat crop in the various regions of the province is not in good condition.”
Calls for better risk management
The department said the Western Cape’s importance to South Africa’s wheat industry made the sustainability of production in areas such as Swartland critical for food security, rural economies and employment.
It acknowledged calls for improved agricultural risk-management tools, including affordable crop insurance, and supported continued engagement between government, industry, financial institutions and insurers.
“If the current dry conditions and production challenges persist, there is a risk that some producers may shift land and investment away from wheat production towards alternative enterprises,” the department said.
yogashen.pillay@nationalmg.co.za