With Brent crude prices surging closer to the $100 per barrel mark once again, fuel prices in South Africa have come into focus with another increase looking very likely for October.
Brent prices surged a further 1.58% on Tuesday to trade at $98.53 per barrel following the resurgence of hostilities between the United States (US) and Iran.
The geopolitical tensions have severely affected oil supply through the strategic Strait of Hormuz throughout 2026, as higher oil prices heavily affect fuel prices in South Africa.
The official monthly adjustment of South African fuel prices depends on the basic fuel price (BFP) calculation, which is predominantly determined by the strength of the rand, international oil prices and other various administered components.
Bianca Botes, Managing Director at Citadel Global said, "The Middle East supply risk keeps a premium in the price. Gold is sitting near $4 405 an ounce, holding its ground even as the dollar strengthened on the prospect of higher US rates."
On Tuesday afternoon, the rand lost some minor gains against the US dollar as it traded R16 to the US dollar, R21.69 against the British pound and R18.59 against the euro.
What it could mean for October fuel prices
Further complicating the matter is that tanker traffic in the Strait of Hormuz has fallen to its lowest level since May.
September saw petrol prices increasing by R1.34 a litre, while diesel rose by between R2.94 and R3.15 a litre.
The September increase was driven largely by higher international oil and petroleum-product prices, with the stronger rand providing only limited relief.
Inland, 95 unleaded petrol now costs R26.92 a litre, while wholesale 50ppm diesel has moved above R30 a litre.
Now oil is moving sharply higher again.
South Africa's monthly fuel-price calculations are heavily influenced by international petroleum prices and the rand-dollar exchange rate. If crude remains elevated, that pressure can feed into the next pricing cycle.
It does not guarantee another increase. A stronger rand or a reversal in oil prices could soften the impact.
But the latest move in crude has put the risk firmly back on the table.
Higher costs put pressure on consumers
Tando Ngibe, Senior Manager at Budget Insurance said, "South African motorists have been on a roller coaster ride with fuel prices, and unfortunately, spring brought another increase in the cost of getting from point A to point B."
Neil Roets, CEO of Debt Rescue said that the financial picture for South African consumers is 'incredibly bleak'.
"While the underlying drivers point to distant geopolitical conflicts such as escalating tensions between the US and Iran pushing global oil prices up, the reality on the ground is intensely personal," Roets added.
"From this month, consumers are paying over R6 more per litre for petrol and a staggering R11 more for diesel than they were just eight months ago," Roets said.
Inflation effects
"Diesel is the lifeblood of our logistics and agricultural sectors, a massive R3 spike in a single month will rapidly cascade into the price of essential goods, staple foods and public transport. The slight strengthening of the rand simply was not enough to buffer consumers against the massive under recoveries, nor the newly increased slate levy and forecourt wage levies," Roets said.
Fuel costs feed directly into inflation and indirectly into the price of transporting goods and running businesses. The South African Reserve Bank (Sarb) has previously noted that higher fuel costs were a major driver of inflation, while renewed increases in global oil prices pose an additional risk.
Redge Nkosi, executive director of the African Heterodox Economics Network AHEN, said that in July the Sarb's Monetary Policy Committee voted 4-2 to hold the repo rate at 7%.
"The trigger was headline inflation at 5% in June, well above the bank's 3% target, driven largely by Brent crude's surge from around $70 to close to $99 a barrel amid the conflict in the Middle East," Nkosi said.
Motorists turn to fuel-efficient vehicles
While August data showed that new car sales increased by just over 11%, the rise in energy-efficient vehicles told a deeper story of how consumers are still fighting against the cost-of-living crisis.
South Africans, however, are turning more towards fuel-efficient and energy vehicles (EVs) due to rising cost pressures faced by millions.
In the first seven months of 2026, 16,289 NEVs were sold, already equal to 97,5% of total 2025 NEV sales and above the 15,596 units recorded in 2024.
The year-to-date mix comprises 8,078 hybrids, 5,851 plug-in hybrids and 2,360 battery electric vehicles, showing that consumers are adopting multiple electrified technology pathways.
“Customers are asking more detailed questions about fuel consumption, finance, insurance, servicing, warranties and the products available to protect their vehicles over longer ownership periods,” Brandon Cohen, National Chairperson of the National Automobile Dealers’ Association (NADA) said.
ashley.lechman@nationalmg.co.za