Farmers urged to plan early as 2026/27 El Niño strengthens
Agricultural experts from Absa and Standard Bank are urging farmers to strengthen drought, water and financial-risk plans as forecasts point to a potentially strong El Niño event persisting into early 2027.
Standard Bank said El Niño conditions had developed in the Pacific Ocean, with climate forecasters indicating that the event could strengthen significantly in the coming months.
The bank said the event was unfolding against a fragile global environment shaped by geopolitical tensions, trade friction, complex trade routes, biosecurity risks, rising input costs and pressure on producers’ margins.
Speaking at Nampo Cape, Loffie Brandt, senior executive at Absa AgriBusiness, said the sector needed to recognise that this could be one of the most severe El Niño events.
“The question is: how do we plan and respond to that?” he said.
Brandt said uncertainty could prompt farmers to rethink their production strategies, including reducing the area planted to limit potential losses.
“Typically, uncertainty will most probably cause farmers to rethink the way they produce. Some of that rethinking might involve reducing their plantings and the area they plant to reduce the potential impact and risk they face,” he said.
Brandt said the sector had emerged from two relatively good seasons, leaving farmers with carry-over stocks that could help buffer the impact of a smaller crop in the next season.
“The other thing one needs to consider is the possibility of a consecutive year of disruption. It does not necessarily have to be El Niño. I think that is where we could see a potentially more severe impact on production, but that is far off and we will have to wait and see” he said.
Drought, heat and water risks
Kelly Tucker, senior manager for environmental, social and governance risk at Standard Bank Group’s Business and Commercial Banking division, said the 2026/27 El Niño was expected to increase climate volatility across Africa.
The potential effects include drought, heat stress, food insecurity, water shortages and infrastructure disruption, highlighting the need for early preparedness and resilience planning, she said.
Standard Bank said agriculture was among the sectors most exposed to the potential effects of the cycle.
“Drought risk, heat stress, changing rainfall patterns and pressure on water resources could affect crop production, livestock operations and broader agricultural value chains across parts of Southern Africa and other regions of the continent,” the bank said.
Louis van Ravesteyn, head of agribusiness at Standard Bank’s Business and Commercial Banking division, said El Niño conditions had arrived and that the agricultural sector needed to plan accordingly.
“The event itself could be significant, but Southern African agriculture is materially better prepared. Investments made across the sector in resilience, technology, water management and climate-smart agriculture will play an important role in determining outcomes over the months ahead,” he said.
Focus on resilience
Standard Bank said the sector was better prepared than it had been during the 2015–17 and 2023–24 drought periods. It cited stronger balance sheets, improved climate intelligence, expanded irrigation capacity, climate-smart agriculture practices and more robust contingency planning.
The bank said these factors provided a stronger foundation for managing potential climate-related disruptions.
It added that farmers, agribusinesses, technology providers and financial institutions were increasingly collaborating on solutions aimed at improving environmental sustainability and commercial viability.
One example, according to the bank, was the growing focus on regenerative agriculture and sustainable farming practices.
yogashen.pillay@nationalmg.co.za