South Africa’s agricultural sector has entered the 2026/27 production season with strong soil moisture and dam levels, but experts warn that early planning will be essential if El Niño brings drier conditions.
Stats SA’s latest gross domestic product (GDP) release shows that the economy has contracted by 0.2% in the second quarter of 2026. Agriculture, however, recorded 0.3% growth.
Absa’s 2026 AgriTrends said South Africa is better placed to withstand early-season climatic stress than during previous drought periods.
“Healthy dam levels, favourable soil moisture reserves, improved grain stock availability and generally favourable veld conditions provide a degree of resilience against early-season climatic stress,” the report said.
It warned, however, that the impact of El Niño will vary by region. Historically, the strongest effects have been concentrated in the summer-rainfall region, particularly the Free State, North-West, Mpumalanga, Northern Cape and Limpopo.
These provinces account for most of South Africa’s grain production and a significant share of its agricultural output.
Favourable moisture levels offer some protection
According to the report, South Africa entered the new production season with favourable soil-moisture conditions after two consecutive seasons of prolonged rainfall.
Summer rains extended beyond their normal seasonal window, replenishing soil-moisture reserves and raising dam levels across central production regions. As a result, farmers began the season with a stronger moisture profile than before previous drought events, the report said.
Absa also noted the growing importance of high-value export markets, supported by investment in production capacity, orchard productivity, cultivar development and international market access.
However, the 2025/26 season showed that growth was taking place in an increasingly difficult operating environment. Persistent rainfall and flooding affected several production regions, influencing fruit quality, harvest timing and export programmes.
Farmers urged to plan early
Agrimark managing director Arno Abeln said preparedness would be farmers’ biggest advantage if El Niño conditions developed.
He said the Food and Agriculture Organization of the United Nations had forecast a more than 50% probability of agricultural drought across South Africa and other parts of Southern Africa.
“One of the most important lessons from previous El Niño cycles is that proactive planning remains one of the most effective tools farmers have for managing uncertainty,” Abeln said.
Although the severity and regional impact of a possible 2026 El Niño event could not be predicted with complete accuracy, farmers could prepare by analysing historical data, forecasting their requirements and investing in suitable infrastructure, he said.
Water management, irrigation, storage capacity, animal-feed planning and access to agricultural inputs would be important during drier periods.
“South Africa’s agricultural sector is incredibly diverse, and the impact of changing weather patterns varies considerably between regions and farming operations,” Abeln said.
He said fruit farmers in the Western Cape might need additional irrigation support, while orchards could require more netting. Farmers in the Northern Cape might need to prioritise animal feed to maintain livestock nutrition during drier months.
Agriculture’s wider economic role
Dr Simphiwe Madikizela, a senior lecturer in economics at Unisa’s School of Graduate Business and Leadership, said continued agricultural production could help ease domestic food-supply pressures.
“A growing horticulture and field-crop sector means more domestic production of food and agricultural commodities. This can help moderate the need for imports and, where there are export surpluses, generate much-needed foreign exchange,” Madikizela said.
He added that agriculture’s direct contribution to GDP did not fully reflect its wider economic importance.
The sector has substantial upstream and downstream links with manufacturing, food processing, retail, transport and exports. Agriculture should therefore not be judged only by its direct share of GDP, which is roughly 2% to 3%, he said.
Early decisions could limit losses
Francois Rossouw, CEO of the Southern African Agri Initiative (SAAI), said the warning of a possible agricultural drought highlighted the importance of early planning.
Farmers should consider planting windows, drought-tolerant or short-season cultivars, water use, feed provision and stocking rates, he said.
“Farmers cannot afford to wait for conditions to worsen before acting. The earlier they adapt their plans to expected dry conditions, the better their chances of protecting production, preserving veld and water resources, and maintaining the long-term sustainability of their businesses,” Rossouw said.
yogashen.pillay@nationalmg.co.za