South African businesses serving long-term structural themes such as energy security, digitalisation, infrastructure and critical minerals are proving more resilient, while sectors exposed to cyclical demand and margin pressures face a more challenging outlook, according to Luke Morawitz, country manager at Allianz Trade South Africa.
Morawitz was commenting on the release of Allianz Trade’s Sector Atlas 2026, which says the global economy is approaching 2027 with uneven and volatile growth. Global GDP growth is expected to slow to 2.5% in 2026 before rebounding to 2.9% in 2027.
The rebound is expected to be supported by investment in artificial intelligence, while geopolitical and trade tensions and supply-chain fragmentation weigh on the outlook. It analyses corporate risk across 17 economic sectors and 70 countries.
Morawitz said South Africa reflects many of the global trends identified in the report, with opportunities in energy, mining and digitalisation contrasting with pressure on trade-exposed sectors.
Trade Allianz said sectors linked to structural growth drivers, including energy, technology, infrastructure development and critical minerals, were better positioned to navigate an increasingly fragmented global economy.
South Africa’s mining value chain, particularly producers of metals used in electrification, renewable-energy infrastructure and digital technologies, remain important.
By contrast, the report found that companies in sectors such as automotive manufacturing, textiles and some consumer-facing industries face weak international demand, rising input costs and changing global trade dynamics.
“These industries will need to focus on operational efficiency, innovation and market diversification to remain competitive,” Morawitz said.
He said the divergence between sectors was becoming increasingly pronounced.
“The ability of South African companies to invest in productivity, embrace technology and strengthen their position within regional and global value chains will be critical to sustaining growth and competitiveness over the medium term,” he said.
The report findings broadly coincide with South African GDP data. Statistics South Africa reported that the trade, catering and accommodation industry declined by 1.9% in the second quarter, while manufacturing fell by 1.8% and mining and quarrying contracted by 3.0%. Household consumption expenditure, however, increased by 0.4%.
The manufacturing decline was led by weakness in several divisions, including food and beverages, furniture and other manufacturing, and basic iron and steel, non-ferrous metal products, metal products and machinery. Mining was affected by lower output of platinum-group metals, manganese, gold and iron ore.
Globally, the technology sector linked to artificial intelligence remains the major growth engine. Infrastructure spending by major digital companies is expected to reach $725 billion in 2026 and exceed $1 trillion in 2027, helping to drive global semiconductor sales towards $1.5trn.
The three most resilient sectors identified by the report are pharmaceuticals, software and IT, and energy. Pharmaceuticals benefit from population ageing, strong patents and innovation, including AI applications. Software and IT are supported by digitalisation.
Energy is benefiting from structurally rising electricity demand linked to data-centre expansion, as well as cash flows generated by oil and gas. Renewables may also benefit from greater emphasis on energy sovereignty
The three sectors facing the greatest challengesm globally are automotive manufacturing, textiles and fashion, and chemicals. Automotive companies are under pressure from Chinese manufacturers. Textiles and fashion are being affected by rising costs and weak consumer demand, while chemicals producers, particularly in Europe, face an energy-cost disadvantage compared with regions such as the US.
Edward.west@nationalmg.co.za
THE NATIONAL