As Rugby’s Greatest Rivalry heads to the rarefied air of Ellis Park for the first Test between the Springboks and All Blacks on Saturday (kick-off 5pm), the margin for error between the nations has never been finer.
Here, we breakdown of the five key battles that will determine who claims ultimate bragging rights in Johannesburg.
The kick-chase strategy
There can be no arguing it: the Springboks do kick more than thee All Blacks — well, at least so far this year — and it is a tactic that has borne positive results for the Green and Gold.
Over the last four Test matches — against England, Scotland, Wales and Argentina — the Boks have kicked out of hand an average of 31.5 times, whereas the All Blacks average 19 kicks over their recent three Test against France, Italy and Ireland. The notable outlier is the recent Bok Test against Argentina, where South Africa kicked a whopping 43 times.
The main concern from that match, however, is how effectively the Argentinians nullified the tactic. Instead of relying on a sweeper to rush up onto the kick, they had players tracking back to field the ball, shepherding it and making it significantly harder to tackle the receiver legally and force a turnover.
Earlier this week, both Bok coach Rassie Erasmus and law advisor Jaco Peyper emphasised that accuracy will be critical if the Boks hope to execute their kicking game effectively against the All Blacks, now that the Pumas have exposed a flaw in the approach.
“You've got to beat them with speed, you've got to get shoulder-to-shoulder and get yourself into that contest,” Peyper said, regarding how to counter the track-back tactic.
“I think it's very clever with the winger running back, competing, and not blocking — using a realistic position to catch a lot of those balls,” Erasmus added. “I think it's a good tactic.”
The battle at the breakdown
Both teams have focused their pre-match comments on the contact area, and the statistics reveal why. It is one area where both sides have been near-impervious in recent Tests. Consequently, any doubt they can plant in the officials' minds — or subtle shifts in how they approach the area — could prove decisive.
The All Blacks have won 12 turnovers across their recent Tests — matching their total from their recent tour matches — and boast a 98% ruck success rate. The Boks, meanwhile, have secured 17 turnovers over their Tests and share an identical ruck success.
Discipline at the breakdown will be vital. Much of the narrative from pundits this past week has revolved around the legality of cleaning out in this area.
“We’ve analysed the All Blacks extensively over the last number of years,” said Bok assistant coach Felix Jones, regarding concerns over tucked-in shoulders at ruck time. “It is not something I’ve seen regularly from them, but feedback from the franchises and recent match footage suggests there is an element of that.”
Just discipline
Speaking of discipline — as highlighted by rugby journalist Brendan Nel — Dave Rennie’s sides have historically struggled in this area. During his tenure as Wallabies head coach, Australia were carded 15 times and copped a red card, giving them the worst disciplinary record among Tier 1 Test nations.
During their tour so far, the All Blacks have been penalised 29 times and shown three yellow cards. In the recent international window, they copped two yellow cards alongside 24 penalties conceded.
The Springboks are tracking on a similar trajectory: they have been penalised 32 times and shown two yellow cards in Tests this season. With goal-kicking success sitting at 84% to 74% in favour of the All Blacks this year, whichever team wins the discipline battle may well emerge victorious in the rarefied air of Ellis Park.
Packing down
The one area where consensus suggests the All Blacks have improved immensely is at scrum- time.
Last year, during back-to-back clashes in New Zealand, the Boks won 13 of their 15 scrums, while the All Blacks won 12 of 15. The Boks have famously used the set-piece to win penalties — which the stats do not account for — and gain territory, but many argue they won't dominate as easily in this series.
The All Blacks have lost only three scrums in Tests this year. Meanwhile, the Boks achieved a 100% scrum success rate against England and Wales, dropping just two scrums against Scotland and one against Argentina. Much will depend on the availability of arguably the world's premier scrummager, Ox Nche, who is currently managing a knee injury.
As it stands, the All Blacks' front row will pack down with Ethan de Groot and Tyrel Lomax at prop, anchored by Codie Taylor at hooker. Should Nche be fit — and Jones indicated earlier this week that his recovery is tracking well — he will form a formidable front-row alongside Malcolm Marx and either Wilco Louw or Thomas du Toit.
The half-back struggle
The New Zealanders are confident that in Cam Roigard they possess one of the premier scrumhalves in world rugby. Coupled with dynamic options inside the backline, including Ruben Love's versatility, they pose a constant threat. Roigard is recovering from a calf niggle but is expected to feature in the matchday squad.
The Boks, meanwhile, face a selection puzzle at pivot between Handré Pollard, Sacha Feinberg-Mngomezulu, and Manie Libbok.
Pollard remains the dependable, big-game choice; Feinberg-Mngomezulu brings game-breaking X-factor, though he is still building match sharpness; while Libbok offers brilliant attacking flow, though his goal-kicking consistency remains a talking point — with Cheslin Kolbe always standing by as a reliable secondary option off the tee.
As established, tactical kicking and goal-kicking accuracy could define the encounter, making pinpoint execution non-negotiable for whoever wears the No 10 jersey, as well as scrumhalves Grant Williams and Cobus Reinach.
Furthermore, the All Blacks want to play at a high tempo. Their recent comments emphasise quick service at set-piece and ruck time to bypass South Africa's physical dominance and unleash their outside backs.
How effectively either half-back pairing controls the game's pace will ultimately dictate who walks away victorious.