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A forecasting model developed by former Statistician-General Pali Lehohla projects a sharp decline in ANC support ahead of South Africa’s 2026 local government elections, but the assumptions, data and methodology behind the forecast require fuller disclosure.
ANC

Lehohla model forecasts sharp ANC decline ahead of 2026 local elections

A forecasting model developed by former Statistician-General Pali Lehohla projects a sharp decline in ANC support ahead of South Africa’s 2026 local government elections, but the…

  • Dr Pali Lehohla
8 min read
National polls can miss the local economic and demographic forces shaping turnout and electoral change. Dr Pali Lehohla argues that census-linked data at enumeration-area level can offer a more detailed view of South Africa’s political landscape.
BALLOT

Decoding the ballot box: Why conventional polling fails without the census mesh

National polls can miss the local economic and demographic forces shaping turnout and electoral change. Dr Pali Lehohla argues that census-linked data at enumeration-area level…

  • Pali Lehohla
4 min read