South Africa’s official unemployment rate rose to 33.6 per cent in the second quarter of 2026, from 32.7 per cent in the first quarter, according to Statistics South Africa. Youth unemployment, already a chronic crisis, climbed to 47.4 per cent. The number of unemployed people has continued to rise as job creation remains too slow to absorb new entrants.
The latest deterioration presents the trade union movement with a structural crisis that reaches beyond collective bargaining. Organised labour must assess whether it is mobilising enough power among both employed and unemployed workers to change the conditions driving mass joblessness.
The global environment is harsh. The World Bank expects global growth of 2.5 per cent in 2026, the weakest rate since the pandemic began, following conflict in West Asia, higher energy prices, stronger inflation and tighter financial conditions. The International Labour Organisation (ILO) estimates global unemployment at 4.9 per cent, while the broader jobs gap reaches 408 million people. Youth unemployment has risen to 12.4 per cent, affecting 67 million young people. These figures describe an international labour market where employment exists alongside insecurity, informality, technological disruption and weak bargaining power.
South Africa is particularly exposed to these pressures because its economy depends on commodity exports, imported petroleum and machinery, global finance and external demand. Growth has been persistently weak. Diesel prices, which power mining, freight, agriculture and logistics, have surged, feeding into food inflation, transport fares and electricity costs.
The International Monetary Fund projects GDP growth of 1.1 per cent in 2026. Infrastructure challenges in logistics and water constrain production. Manufacturing has declined in importance over decades. The tariffs imposed by Washington have exacerbated uncertainty despite Pretoria’s efforts to maintain access to the US market and to find alternative markets through intra-African trade and BRICS.
Job losses have removed many workers from union rolls. Some studies put union membership at around 25 per cent, down from 34 per cent a decade ago. The National Union of Mineworkers has seen its membership drop to around 180,000 from a much larger size. The National Union of Metalworkers of South Africa has been losing members as plant closures in the auto and metal sectors caused widespread job losses. Unions have also struggled to adapt to technological advancements and changing working environments.
In this context, the trade union movement has experienced a sharp decline in its organisational power. The national bargaining councils, a key element of the labour agreement after apartheid, are now weakening as employer organisations either withdraw from centralised bargaining or seek exemptions that undermine collective agreements.
In response, the trade union movement has presented proposals to Parliament to stem retrenchments, including tax rebates, industrial subsidies and incentives. The Congress of South African Trade Unions (COSATU) has demanded urgent action on decent and sustainable employment, focusing on retrenchments, weak economic growth and the rising cost of living.
The South African Federation of Trade Unions (SAFTU) has condemned austerity measures and demanded progressive taxation. The Federation of Unions of South Africa (FEDUSA) has advocated a moratorium on large-scale retrenchments, called for reskilling, supported stronger collective bargaining, called for the protection of public services, and requested a universal basic income grant. The Unemployed People’s Assembly and similar organisations have tried to give voice to the jobless.
At the Labour 20 Summit in July 2025, held alongside the G20, the four main federations – COSATU, FEDUSA, SAFTU and the National Council of Trade Unions – presented a united front. They called for a 'New Social Contract' focusing on worker dignity, fair distribution of economic resources and structural global reforms.
The international framework for dealing with unemployment, set out by the International Labour Organisation and other organisations, serves as a useful standard for assessing South Africa's actions. Viewing unemployment as a result of capitalist exploitation, the World Federation of Trade Unions, from a class-struggle perspective, has called for a global struggle against unemployment and has demanded the right to work, social security, reduced working hours, and protective arrangements for the unemployed. The 2009 ILO Global Jobs Pact called for employment protection, social protection, public employment services, skills development, support for small enterprises and cooperatives, public employment guarantees, infrastructure investment and stronger social dialogue.
South Africa incorporated these ideas through the National Development Plan (NDP), the Decent Work Country Programme, the Presidential Employment Stimulus, the National Youth Service and the Jobs Fund, and social dialogue institutions such as the National Economic Development and Labour Council (NEDLAC). NEDLAC's 2026 Call to Action on Jobs and Productivity also pledges that the social partners will work towards restoring higher value-added growth and increasing productive employment. But the NDP target of six per cent unemployment by 2030 remains distant.
The persistence of mass unemployment despite these interventions reflects, among others, the wider decline in the trade union movement’s capacity to exert pressure on economic policy and implementation of agreed commitments. Its militancy has either been weakened by its proximity to the political machinery of the Government of National Unity, or sidelined. This disempowerment has made it difficult to mount a sustained offensive against the structural causes of unemployment: the concentration of capital, the dominance of finance over production, and the subordination of social policy to the imperatives of global markets due to neoliberalism.
The trade union movement, in its current state, is unable to drive adequate change. The working class, fragmented and demoralised, watches as unemployment rises and union power wanes. To remain relevant, federations should absorb the organising structures of unemployed workers, strengthen alliances with community organisations, coordinate pressure for public employment, link industrial policies to domestic procurement and set measurable employment targets.
Defending public infrastructure control and investment, supporting worker-controlled cooperatives and demanding insourcing and clear pathways from training to paid work are also essential. Trade union investment arms should be deployed more deliberately as instruments to create productive employment rather than primarily as vehicles to preserve and grow financial assets. Ultimately, employment generation must become a central issue in all economic agreements. If this kind of change does not occur, the influence of trade unions will continue to decline as unemployment increases.
Dr Reneva Fourie is a policy analyst specialising in governance, development and security
*Fouries' views are not necessarily those of The National