South Africa’s Government Business Partnership (GBP) has entered a decisive new phase at a moment when the arithmetic of growth, jobs, and confidence must converge.
Announced on 20 August 2026, Phase 3 is explicitly configured to lift the economy above the 3%+ growth threshold and contribute to one million additional jobs by 2030, anchoring a strategic pivot from crisis response to sustained expansion.
The narrative consolidates the operational gains at Eskom and Transnet, two network industries whose stabilisation is already visible in the data and links them to opportunities in mining, tourism, and agriculture that can translate macro-stability into employment and investment.
Eskom’s recovery offers a data-led inflection in the economic story.
The system moved from 335 days of loadshedding in 2023 to a stable grid, alongside Eskom returning to profit for the first time in eight years. This is a measurable pivot from an environment that suppressed output and investment to one where capacity is more predictable, and disruption costs abate.
With GDP growth at 1.1% in 2025 and unemployment at 33.6%, the dividend from fewer unplanned outages is material. A stable grid improves confidence, reduces project-finance risk, and gives energy-intensive sectors clearer line of sight on returns.
The labour-market imperative is equally clear.
With 8.5 million people unemployed and about 300,000 net new work-seekers entering the labour force annually, growth below 3% allows labour supply to outpace demand. The one million additional jobs by 2030 target implies 250,000 net additional jobs per year from 2027 to 2030.
That cadence is ambitious, but attainable if Eskom stability and Transnet logistics gains translate into productivity and private investment.
A parallel recovery story is visible at Transnet. Logistics performance is recovering, headlined by Durban being named the world’s most improved port. In a trading nation, port efficiency is a backbone metric for competitiveness: greater reliability shifts export curves outward and improves margins for producers dependent on rail-and-port corridors.
For exporters in mining and agriculture, Durban’s turnaround reduces cost drag from congestion and unpredictability. For investors, it lowers delivery risk in throughput-sensitive projects.
The macro-confidence suite has also inflected. South Africa has exited the Financial Action Task Force (FATF) grey list, recorded its first primary budget surpluses in 15 years, posted six consecutive quarters of growth, received sovereign rating upgrades by S&P and Fitch, and secured an improved Moody’s outlook.
A stronger Rand and declining inflation round out a profile of risk compression.
The GBP’s design explicitly recognizes this sequencing: stabilise the enablers (energy and logistics), crowd in private capital, and use confidence multipliers (crime and corruption remediation, local government strengthening, youth employment) to make the upswing durable.
Phase 3 is organised around three pillars, and their architecture reveals how the partnership intends to convert stabilisation into scale.
The first pillar keeps focus on Energy and Transport & Logistics — the economy’s growth enablers.
The second adds four new growth drivers — Mining, Tourism, Infrastructure, and Agriculture & Agro-processing — chosen for scale, geographic reach, and capacity to absorb lower-skilled workers with a youth emphasis.
The third focuses on confidence multipliers — crime and corruption, local government, youth employment, and an evidence-based national growth narrative.
The Partnership will publish detailed delivery plans and metrics in Q4 2026, with quarterly public reporting thereafter.
Mining’s potential under Phase 3 is linked directly to Eskom and Transnet. Energy stability lowers downtime and self-generation costs, while logistics recovery reduces export friction and inventory costs.
The point is already visible in Thungela’s interim results for the six months to June 2026: profit for the period rose to R1.39 billion from R248 million, export equity sales increased 7%, and adjusted operating free cash flow climbed to R1.9 billion, with stronger export volumes supported by improved rail performance and coal flows to Richards Bay. Stabilised enablers reduce operating volatility and shorten payback periods, helping unlock deferred investments.
For investors assessing South African mining, the headline signposts — energy profit restoration, logistics recovery, ratings upgrades and firm-level evidence such as Thungela — shift the risk-adjusted Net Present Value calculus even before commodity cycles turn.
Tourism, among the most elastic job creators per unit of investment, stands to benefit from improvements in safety, governance credibility, and infrastructure. If the grid remains stable through peak seasons, service reliability becomes easier to guarantee, raising yields per visitor and lengthening stays.
Agriculture and agro-processing tie the story together by linking rural employment, export diversification, and logistics reliability.
The sector’s ability to absorb large numbers of lower-skilled workers aligns with the GBP’s youth employment priorities.
Here, Transnet’s recovery translates directly into reduced spoilage risk, tighter cold-chain integrity, and improved access to time-sensitive markets.
The forthcoming Q4 2026 delivery metrics will matter: clarity on corridor throughput targets, turnaround times, and service-level baselines will allow producers and processors to calibrate planting and processing cycles with greater precision.
The partnership’s insistence on measurable outcomes and public reporting is economic, not procedural. Quarterly transparency lowers information asymmetry for investors and credit providers and creates a discipline loop: if 3%+ growth is the bar for job-creating momentum, deviations can be diagnosed and corrected in time to protect the one million jobs by 2030 trajectory.
The operating model — bringing together ministers, senior government officials, senior business leaders, CEOs, and implementation teams — has already demonstrated delivery credibility through energy, logistics and macro-confidence gains.
For capital allocators, the investability of South Africa in Phase 3 can be read three linked lenses.
First, system risk is falling: energy stability and logistics recovery reduce operational variance and tail risk.
Second, policy credibility is rising: sovereign upgrades by S&P and Fitch, an improved Moody’s outlook, primary surpluses, and six consecutive growth quarters signal a state capable of delivery.
Third, the growth engine is being purpose-built: by concentrating effort where jobs elasticity is highest — mining value chains, tourism services, agriculture, and agro-processing — the partnership aligns macro targets with employment. The implied trajectory of about 250,000 net new jobs per year from 2027 to 2030 requires private investment to accelerate in 2026–2027.
The decisive point is that South Africa is no longer attempting to grow while dragging anchor on its two heaviest systems. A stable grid and recovering logistics change the baseline. Phase 3 offers investors a clearer proposition: macro risks are easing, delivery governance is being institutionalised, and sectors with the highest employment multipliers are being prioritised.
If capital responds to these signals — as the ratings upgrades, stronger Rand, and declining inflation suggest it can — the objective of 3%+ growth and one million additional jobs by 2030 moves from aspiration to actionable path.
The task ahead is execution at scale, with the promised Q4 2026 metrics providing the scorecard by which delivery — and investible momentum — will be judged.
Dr Clarence Tshitereke, an honorary professor at Unisa’s Thabo Mbeki School of Public & International Affairs, works at the Minerals & Petroleum Resources Ministry.
He is writing in his capacity as a member of the Government Communication System.
**The views expressed do not necessarily reflect the views of the National Media Group.