South Africa’s 0.2% GDP contraction is a warning that the old economic model is struggling.
But the answer is not simply to repair what we have, it is to build the industries capable of creating the growth, jobs and exports we need.
South Africa’s latest GDP figures are disappointing.
The economy contracted by 0.2% in the second quarter of 2026, following growth of only 0.4% in the first quarter. Mining contracted by 3%, manufacturing by 1.8%, and trade, catering and accommodation by 1.9%.
Year-on-year growth was just 0.9%. These numbers are a warning that the economic model we have is struggling to generate the growth, investment and employment South Africa needs.
But perhaps the more important question is what we do with that number.
We can spend the next few years trying to rescue an economy built for yesterday. Or we can start building the economy we need for tomorrow.
That is the conversation at the heart of the Future of Jobs Summit, which introduced the South Africa Next10 Index earlier this year: a framework identifying ten industries in which South Africa has the potential to compete, create jobs, attract investment and generate exports over the next decade.
The premise is simple: GDP tells us how the economy we have is performing.
The Next10 asks what economy we should be building.
Using international benchmarks and sector evidence, with each sector weighted equally, the Next10 currently scores South Africa 6.8 out of 10.
This is not an official international ranking, but an editorial assessment intended to stimulate a different economic conversation.
The results are revealing.
AI and Advanced Computing scores 8/10.
South Africa ranks second in sub-Saharan Africa in the Oxford Insights Government AI Readiness Index. The opportunity is not simply to adopt AI, but to export software, data, expertise and AI-enabled services.
Green Energy and Climate Tech scores 4.5/10, the weakest category. South Africa ranks 41st globally in the 2026 Climate Change Performance Index.
Yet our solar and wind resources, critical minerals and green-hydrogen potential provide an enormous opportunity. The challenge is turning potential into investment and scale.
Smart Agriculture and Food Security scores 6.5/10. South Africa ranked 59th of 113 countries in the 2022 Global Food Security Index.
The opportunity is to connect agriculture with agri-tech, biotechnology, food processing, logistics and exports.
Space and Aerospace scores 7/10.
The US Commercial Service identifies South Africa as an African leader in small-satellite development, with approximately 95% of space-industry revenue coming from exports.
We do not need to become the world’s biggest space economy; we need to win in specialist capabilities.
Biotech and Health Innovation scores 6/10, with South Africa ranking 35th of 54 countries in the 2026 Biotechnology Innovation Scorecard.
Creative Economy and Cultural Exports scores 5.5/10, with WIPO ranking South Africa 53rd for creative-goods exports. Both offer opportunities to turn scientific and cultural capability into intellectual property and exports.
Financial Innovation and Digital Assets scores 7.5/10. Our sophisticated financial system provides a platform for fintech and digital financial services aimed at South Africa and the continent.
Tourism, Sport and the Experience Economy scores 8/10. South Africa ranks 55th of 119 countries in the World Economic Forum’s Travel & Tourism Development Index and remains the highest-ranked country in Africa.
The opportunity is to build a global experience economy around wildlife, sport, entertainment, culture, food and events.
Advanced Manufacturing and Robotics scores 6/10. South Africa ranks 69th in high-tech manufacturing indicators in WIPO’s 2025 Global Innovation Index. Our industrial base, automotive sector, engineering capability and mining technology provide a platform for moving up the value chain.
Global Business Services and Digital Services scores 8/10 — and this addition is particularly important. In 2025, the sector created more than 26,000 new jobs servicing international markets, around 90% going to young people, and is targeting as many as 500,000 cumulative jobs by 2030. GBS demonstrates that South Africans can increasingly work for the world, turning human capital into exports.
Taken together, these sectors point to a fundamental problem: South Africa is not necessarily short of talent, entrepreneurs, resources or opportunity. We are short of scale.
We repeatedly create pockets of excellence without building the ecosystems required to turn them into globally competitive industries.
We have financial sophistication without enough continental scale, agricultural capability without enough value-added processing, scientific talent without enough commercialisation, and technology expertise without enough export scale.
This is why the Next10 should become more than an index. It should become a national economic scoreboard measuring five things: jobs, exports, investment, skills and global competitiveness. How many AI jobs are we creating?
How many global GBS jobs are we winning? How much green-energy investment are we attracting? How much South African intellectual property is being commercialised? What share of African markets are our companies capturing?
That would shift the conversation from managing a slow-growing economic pie to expanding it. It also connects directly to the Future of Jobs Summit.
The future of jobs cannot be separated from the future of the economy. Preparing people for tomorrow’s jobs is meaningless if we do not simultaneously build the industries that will create them.
South Africa cannot build tomorrow’s prosperity by endlessly trying to rescue yesterday’s economy. We need to fix what is broken, but we also need to build what comes next. The future will not be inherited. It will be built.
Dr Nik Eberl is the founder and executive chair: The Future of Jobs Summit™ (Official T20 Side Event). He is also the author of Nation of Champions: How South Africa won the World Cup of Destination Branding).
**The views expressed do not necessarily reflect the views of the National Media Group.