Prof. Bheki Mngomezulu
Those who view things from a modern scientific perspective believe that space is never truly unoccupied or empty. Where the space looks empty, there is air occupying it.
The same logic applies to politics. When dominant parties lose support, the space is filled by other political parties that either work through a coalition or one party gets more votes and takes up the space relinquished by a once dominant political party.
This was the case in Botswana, where Umbrella for Democratic Change, which is led by Advocate Duma Boko, replaced the Botswana Democratic Party (BDP), which had ruled that country for fifty-eight years.
In South Africa, the ANC has been on a downward spiral from 2019 to 2024. This significant decline has urged other political parties to try their luck to replace the ANC either as individual parties or through a coalition government.
As the date of the 2026 Local Government Election (LGE) approaches, the questions become: Will the ANC redeem itself in this election? Will it succeed in either retaining the municipalities it won in the 2021 LGE or adding new ones?
Depending on who answers these questions, the responses could either be positive or negative.
While this is the case, a closer look at the recent turn of events does not paint an optimistic picture about the ANC.
Firstly, it is accused of undermining the will of the people by submitting the names of the candidates who were not elected by communities. This allegation has come from different provinces, including Gauteng and the North-West.
Secondly and most importantly, the ANC failed to complete the process of submitting the names of 181 candidates in six provinces. Four of these municipalities were in the Eastern Cape (Sundays River Valley Local Municipality, Walter Sisulu Local Municipality, Ingquza Hill Local Municipality, and Port St Johns Local Municipality).
There was one in KwaZulu-Natal (KZN), which was uMshwathi Local Municipality and one in the Free State, which was Mangaung Metropolitan Municipality.
When the ANC took the matter to the Electoral Court, it lost. Surely, it can still exhaust all legal processes. But the following questions remain: Why did other parties meet the IEC deadline of August 28, 2026, while the ANC and other parties failed?
Secondly, when filling out any document, is the process deemed ‘completed’ before clicking ‘submission’ and receiving confirmation? If the answers to these questions are negative, then the ANC has a very weak case.
Meanwhile, the South African Communist Party (SACP) is ready to contest the upcoming election independently. Moreover, COSATU, which is part of the Tripartite Alliance, has its fair share of challenges. These include being tested whether to support the ANC or the SACP and ending up leaving it to its individual members to decide.
Amid all these developments and in line with the statement about science and empty spaces, the questions below beg for answers.
Firstly, do the ANC’s blunders create fertile ground for parties like the EFF, SACP, and the MKP to explore the gap created by the party which is licking self-inflicted political wounds?
Secondly, would these three parties increase their chances to replace the ANC if they operated individually or through a coalition?
Thirdly, does the ANC’s failure to register candidates, especially in four municipalities in the Eastern Cape where it has traditionally performed better, create a golden opportunity for the three leftist parties to rally behind one another and make a statement to the ANC? If so, what form would such collaboration take?
While all these questions are important in understanding how the ANC’s evident challenges could reconfigure the country’s political landscape, another equally important question is what can the ANC do between now and the election day on November 4? Is the time on the party’s side?
Fikile Mbalula, the ANC’s General Secretary under whose watch the challenges enumerated above happened is handling ANC matters through emotions, not rationality.
Instead of keeping unity in the ANC during these testing times, he opted to blame Eastern Cape ANC Provincial Secretary Lulama Ngcukaitobi for the party’s failure to conclude the submission process. What about KZN and Free State?
The ball is in the leftist parties’ court!