Many a South African has decried the playing of the fourth and final Test of Rugby’s Greatest Rivalry between the Springboks and the All Blacks in Baltimore on Saturday night, and from an emotional perspective, being peeved by the move is more than justified.
Having taken command of the series 2-1 in South Africa, it would have been all the more pleasing to watch Bok skipper Siya Kolisi and Co parade the trophy so tightly contested for, in the country. Instead, SA Rugby and their New Zealand counterparts have opted to take the final match abroad.
A European venue was early in the discussions, but ultimately the Test was earmarked for a US venue: the 71 000-seater M&T Bank Stadium in the state of Maryland on the mid-Atlantic seaboard. It is traditionally the home of NFL outfit the Baltimore Ravens.
It might seem cynical, but playing the match in the US is good for business, not only financially but also with the Rugby World Cup 2031 in mind. It continues a recent trend in which major sporting codes are all targeting the US.
Most recently, Fifa hosted the Fifa World Cup 2026 in North America with the US as a co-host, and it is estimated that they will reap revenue of $15 billion (about R242.5bn), while the 2028 Olympic Games in Los Angeles have a revenue target of $7.15 billion (R121.3bn). Even sports historically not aligned to North America, such as the 2024 ICC Men’s T20 World Cup, managed to generate a staggering $619 million (R10.01bn).
In contrast, World Rugby enjoyed record earnings of $500 million (R8.1bn) after their most successful tournament — the Rugby World Cup 2023 — in France.
Based on those facts alone, it is clear why rugby is desperate to finally secure a meaningful foothold in the States. And it is a targeted strategy that will only increase in years to come, according to World Rugby’s Chief of Rugby Mark Robinson.
Speaking exclusively to The National ahead of the third Test of Rugby’s Greatest Rivalry a week ago, the former All Blacks utility back and CEO of New Zealand Rugby was careful in his response when questioned about World Rugby’s designs on the US. His trepidation is well-earned: after all, the 52-year-old has only been in his new role since May.
Nonetheless, Robinson was more than willing to reveal a glimpse into the thinking of World Rugby.
“I think World Rugby have been working with a number of national unions and teams over the last 12 to 18 months about creating a schedule of fixtures which can grab the attention of the US market,” Robinson said.
“Last year, the All Blacks and Ireland playing in Chicago was a huge event. Prior to that, Fiji and the All Blacks played in San Diego, which was another positive event.
“We've seen in the data that came out of those games, in terms of fans, there was a huge amount of reach across all 50 states in the US. It provided a real indication through the fan data of what's possible in terms of major events when working with tourism authorities, cities, local councils, different sporting organisations, different other franchises professionally and being able to leverage those major events and create more and more publicity around the fixtures.
“I think Baltimore will be exactly the same in that regard,” he continued.
“There's already work going on with other national unions and teams to be able to build more and more fixtures from 2028 — it's harder next year because it's a World Cup year.”
The reasoning is sound. As alluded to by Robinson — and reported by The Athletic earlier this week — the game forms part of World Rugby’s £200m (about R4.37bn) investment in the US.
No other nation consumes sports media or merchandise as much as the Americans. It is estimated, according to CNBC, that the average American spends up to $2 000 (R32 300) a year following their teams, while superfans can spend up to $5 000 (R81 000), often placing themselves into debt to do so.
Moreover, when it comes to commercial purchasing power, the US remains king. Using the World Bank's data, the GDP per capita income in the US is over $90 000 (R1.45m) in comparison to the UK’s $57 600 (R931 000) and the European Union’s $47 000 (R760 000). South Africa’s GDP per capita, meanwhile, is a paltry $6 600 (R107 000).
By 2030, it is projected that TV advertising will spend $24.9 billion (R402.47bn) for sporting codes that are mostly localised to the US and enjoy limited international appeal.
All of this combined has made US sporting teams the richest in the world. Of the 20 most valuable sporting brands in the world, according to Forbes, only Manchester United, Real Madrid and Barcelona can compete, and even they are barely holding on in recent years. The rest are US-based teams in the NFL and NBA, with the Dallas Cowboys valued at over $15 billion (R242.43bn).
The Boks, meanwhile, breached the R2bn revenue threshold in 2025.
If the Springboks and All Blacks manage to sell out in Baltimore, it could generate gate-takings of $14m (R229.4m), if the average of $200 (R3 200) per ticket holds true. FNB Stadium admitted over 85 000 spectators this past weekend but any figure regarding ticket sales would be purely speculative. The Athletic, however, believes there will be a windfall of $8m (R174.9m) for SA and New Zealand rugby after this weekend for their Baltimore clash.
So, while rugby traditionalists are dying inside at the thought of more rugby between nations playing outside their borders in the US, the reality insists that rugby must conquer the US. But what of the Americanisms in US sport — the frequent commercial breaks, the half-time shows, and the pomp and razzmatazz of their broadcasting?
Robinson will admit to not knowing too much about all of that, but here he can also give the slightest of insights into what to expect, especially in five years’ time.
"I'm not close to that,” Robinson insisted.
“I know World Rugby, last year, when I was a part of it, was speaking to host city delegations, and a number of cities from all around America came into those settings to talk with World Rugby about what they could provide in terms of the tournament opportunities for those cities.
“Those cities were coming in definitely with views about what holding a major event in America looks like and how to leverage those opportunities. But that's about as close to that as I've been, to be honest,” he concluded.
Take from that what you will.